Bitcoin is expected to rebound and reassert its course above the macro trend in 2025, according to a recent forecast that weighs fundamental political events alongside technical signals. In a November 4 post on social media, Keith Alan, co-founder of the trading resource Material Indicators, argued that the US presidential election would cast a two-month shadow over Bitcoin’s price action. He outlined a scenario where BTC rallies back to a position above the macro trend, but only as the political climate settles and market participants recalibrate risk. His analysis stressed that a Trump victory would likely trigger a knee-jerk reaction in BTC/USD, while a Democratic win would produce the opposite effect. He positioned the statement as one of four assumptions about short-term price performance, emphasizing that Bitcoin would not hit a new all-time high before the votes were counted.
Alan also highlighted that several technical support lines were failing to hold, including the notable mid-cycle top from April 2021 and the 21-day simple moving average (SMA), as well as the critical $69,000 level. He pointed to the 50-day moving average as a focal point for potential support, with secondary support expected at the 21-week moving average. Yet he cautioned that the expected volatility associated with the election could erase or obscure these technicals. The day-by-day Bitcoin price action would likely reflect shifting expectations about policy, inflation, and macro risk appetite more than pure chart-based signals in the weeks surrounding Election Day.
Looking ahead, Alan warned that a longer-term complication could emerge from persistent geopolitical flux. He suggested that the market might not begin to outperform again until a new government is officially installed, a milestone anticipated to arrive in mid-January. He remarked, with a blunt tone, that relief from the politics-induced anxiety, stress, chaos, and market volatility might not arrive until Inauguration Day on January 20. Nevertheless, he concluded with a forward-looking thesis: “Regardless of who wins Election2024, by Q2 2025 Bitcoin will return to its trajectory above the macro trend.” This forecast positions a measured near-term path alongside a more resilient medium-term expectation that BTC returns to a growth track once political uncertainty is resolved.
As the market continued to digest these scenarios, Bitcoin’s price trajectory remained a focal point for traders and analysts. The ongoing narrative suggested that all-time highs would be revisited as the broader market cycles through phases of risk-on sentiment and liquidity expansion. In this context, several market participants and observers anticipated a forthcoming price discovery event in the coming months, with some predicting that Bitcoin could reach or surpass the $100,000 mark in early 2025. The discussion around a possible surge to five-figure prices underscored the market’s expectation that macro catalysts, including policy clarity and institutional participation, could unlock a fresh wave of buyer interest.
In recent price action, Bitcoin narrowly missed equaling its peer record from the previous March, reinforcing the view that the market remains capable of rapid moves in response to shifting narratives, even as key resistance and support levels loom. Material Indicators cautioned that if selling pressure intensified, there could be a swift move down toward important longer-term support lines, including the 50-week moving average and the macro trend line that undergirds the broader chart. The 50-week SMA was noted to be at approximately $59,200, a level viewed as a weaponized line in the sand for bulls and bears alike. This assessment relied on a synthesis of market data from major analytics platforms, with the explicit caveat that price action could override, or invalidate, technical analyses in the face of outsized political or macro shocks.
This overarching narrative—politics, macro risk, and chart mechanics—frames Bitcoin’s near-term action while acknowledging the possibility of a substantive break in either direction as new information becomes available. Traders and analysts have increasingly focused on how political developments could alter market expectations of inflation, interest rate trajectories, and risk tolerance, thereby re-prioritizing BTC in portfolios as a hedge or a speculative engine depending on the evolving macro narrative. While the possibility of a fresh all-time high remains a topic of debate, the consensus among some market participants centers on the likelihood of renewed volatility in the run-up to the inauguration and in the months that follow as the new administration’s policy maneuvers begin to unfold.
Election-driven volatility and the path to 2025: a deeper look
The interplay between elections and Bitcoin price action has long been a subject of intense scrutiny among traders who view political calendars as catalysts for risk assets. In this context, the November 2024-into-2025 window represents a particularly potent confluence of factors. First, there is the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price: after a period of consolidation or correction, the asset often experiences elevated volatility when markets reassess inflation expectations and the stance of major central banks. Second, political risk appetite tends to shift quickly around election cycles, influencing liquidity flows into and out of risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies. Third, policy clarity—or ambiguity—matters for institutions and retail participants alike. The prospect of clearer regulatory frameworks or, conversely, stricter controls can sway long-term investment theses and dampen or amplify demand for Bitcoin as a strategic asset.
Against this backdrop, the two-month shadow Alan references can be understood as the time window in which traders reassess risk, reevaluate price targets, and position ahead of the political resolution. If a Trump victory is perceived as signaling a different regulatory stance or fiscal approach, traders may react with immediate moves in BTC/USD, followed by a more sustained re-pricing as the market digests the implications for the broader crypto landscape. If Democrats retain control, the opposite could occur, with traders re-pricing Bitcoin in light of anticipated policy trajectories, regulatory enforcement priorities, and the potential for more expansive stimulus or alternative macro strategies.
The near-term thesis thus comprises several interconnected elements: a reminder that BTC may fail to hit new all-time highs before the votes are counted; a caution that major support lines have struggled to hold; the possibility that volatility may erode technicals; and an expectation that meaningful upside becomes more plausible only once the political landscape stabilizes and a new government assumes office in mid-January. Together, these elements suggest a period of heightened vigilance for traders, characterized by sharp intraday moves and a slow-burning recalibration of multi-month price expectations.
Technical landscape: moving averages, supports, and what they mean for BTC
Central to Alan’s analysis—and to a broad swath of technical commentary on Bitcoin—are several moving averages and a handful of critical price zones. The 50-day moving average (50-day MA) sits at the center of attention as a potential fulcrum for near-term price direction. While the price action has flirted with, and in some cases undershot, this line, the expectation remains that the 50-day MA will function as a meaningful reference point for traders once volatility subsides. The 21-day simple moving average (21-day SMA) and the 21-week moving average (21-week MA) represent shorter and slightly longer-term baselines, respectively. Their current status—whether they are providing support or turning into resistance—plays a substantial role in framing the immediate risk-reward calculus for BTC.
In Alan’s framework, the April 2021 mid-cycle top has been a historical benchmark, a reminder of the macro structure that transcends shorter-term swings. If these highs and their associated trendlines fail to act as support in the near term, market participants may reassess the downside risk and potential breakpoints. The key takeaway from the analysis is that BTC faces multiple layers of defense: the 50-day MA, the 21-week MA, and the overarching macro trend line. If pressure compounds and the price breaks below these levels, the 50-week SMA—currently around $59,200—emerges as a critical target for downside risk.
The interplay of these technicals with fundamental uncertainty creates a delicate environment. On the one hand, traders crave objective signals from moving averages and trendlines; on the other hand, the market’s reaction to political headlines can override technicals in the short run. The overarching expectation is that, while the macro-dynamic remains important, the technical framework provides a scaffold for possible paths rather than a guaranteed outcome. The potential for volatility to obliterate technical structures underscores the need for risk controls, clear stop-loss levels, and a careful assessment of time horizons for anyone looking to engage with BTC during this period.
Beyond the explicit price levels and moving averages, the broader chart structure supports a cautious stance. The long-run macro trend remains a foundational construct for many traders who watch for pattern completions, breakouts, and retests that may portend a shift in the overarching cycle. The possibility of a late-cycle rally exists, but it is expected to be tempered by the political uncertainty and potential macro surprises. In this context, the price action around the election window is not merely a test of immediate support and resistance; it serves as a transitional phase that could determine whether BTC re-enters a growth trajectory in early 2025 or remains tethered to a more muted, choppy range until policy clarity is achieved.
Geopolitics, policy shifts, and the longer arc toward 2025
As the political calendar moves toward Inauguration Day on January 20, market watchers increasingly emphasize the role of policy clarity in shaping Bitcoin’s medium-term trajectory. Alan’s prognosis, which foresees relief only after the political fog begins to thin, aligns with a broader view that policy direction—and the speed with which it becomes predictable—has a disproportionate impact on risk assets. The notion that “the shitstorm of politics-induced anxiety, stress, chaos or market volatility” will abate only with formal transition underscores a pragmatic view: until the new administration is in place, investors may treat macro headlines as primary drivers of capital allocation decisions, pushing Bitcoin to respond to shifts in risk sentiment rather than to intrinsic network metrics alone.
For Bitcoin, this environment implies that a period of consolidation or patchy volatility could persist through late December and into January, before a more definitive re-risking phase begins as the new government’s policy roadmap becomes clearer. The expectation that BTC will return to its trajectory above the macro trend by mid-2025 reflects a belief that the macro framework will tilt toward conditions favorable for a renewed Bitcoin cycle. In practice, this could manifest as a sequencing of events: a short-lived reaction to the election, a stabilization phase as investors position for the inauguration, a potential retest of the macro trend line, and finally a more sustained upswing once policy clarity supports broader risk-on behavior.
Within this context, the broader market consensus that all-time highs remain plausible rests on several interlocking factors. If the global liquidity environment remains accommodative and if institutional interest continues to grow, Bitcoin could re-enter a rapid price discovery phase. The anticipation of a $100,000 price level in early 2025 reflects a market that believes in a cyclical re-expansion of demand as macro uncertainty recedes and market confidence returns. However, even with such optimism, the scenario warns of downside risk that, in the event of a breakdown, could drive BTC toward the 50-week moving average and the macro trend line, serving as important guardrails during a potentially volatile period.
The price action narrative around the election and its aftermath—characterized by a delicate balance between risk-on appetite and risk-off caution—has positioned Bitcoin as a barometer for broader market sentiment. A key takeaway from the current discourse is that BTC’s trajectory may hinge as much on political and regulatory developments as on on-chain metrics or traditional technical indicators. As traders weigh the relative weight of these factors, the possibility remains that Bitcoin will pivot toward higher highs in the wake of policy announcements and fiscal stabilization, while also presenting scenarios where the macro trend remains a stubborn ceiling if risk conditions deteriorate.
Market consensus, price pathways, and the spectrum of outcomes
Market participants remain broadly optimistic about Bitcoin’s capacity to reach new price heights, even as they acknowledge the likelihood of near-term volatility tied to the U.S. election cycle and broader macro uncertainties. In the months ahead, forecasts range from a swift charge toward all-time highs to a more muted trajectory that tests the durability of critical support lines before resuming a longer-term uptrend. A notable feature of the current discourse is the proliferation of price targets that envision a substantial upside in 2025, conditioned on favorable political outcomes and a receptive macro environment.
Forecasts that point to a rapid price discovery event—potentially pushing BTC toward $100,000 in early 2025—reflect a belief that the catalysts driving the initial leg of the current cycle have not yet fully played out. If demand compounds and the market absorbs the implications of policy shifts, Bitcoin could embark on a disciplined ascent that lifts price action through the next resistance barrier and beyond. In the event of a softening macro backdrop or disappointing policy signals, the market could test upper-bound risk controls at the 50-week SMA level and the macro trend line, a scenario consistent with a sharper correction or a prolonged consolidation phase.
The near-term warning signs include the possibility of a break below the critical support levels cited by analysts. If the price fails to secure the 50-day MA or the 21-week MA, or if it falls decisively below the $69,000 level, traders may re-price risk toward more conservative targets. In such a scenario, the 50-week SMA, sitting near $59,200, would likely become a focal point for defensive positioning, as it represents a tangible anchor in a volatile market. The confluence of a potential macro trend break and a lack of sustained bullish catalysts could extend a period of range-bound trading, with occasional spikes driven by political headlines or unexpected macro developments.
From a practical standpoint, investors should consider a structured approach to navigating this environment. A diversified strategy that accounts for time horizon, risk tolerance, and exposure to Bitcoin and correlated assets can help mitigate the downside risk associated with political uncertainty and macro shifts. For those with a long-term perspective, the probability of BTC returning to a trajectory above the macro trend by mid-2025 remains a persuasive thesis, provided that the fundamental drivers—adoption, liquidity, and institutional interest—continue to strengthen and not be derailed by policy missteps or regulatory crackdowns. For traders focused on shorter horizons, the emphasis should be on disciplined risk management, clear exit strategies, and readiness to adapt to rapid changes in sentiment as election news and policy announcements emerge.
Investment context and risk considerations
The analysis presented in this discussion aligns with the broader caution that cryptocurrency markets, including Bitcoin, carry inherent risks that require careful consideration. The assertion that this article does not constitute investment advice remains an important reminder: all investment and trading moves involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research and consult financial professionals before making decisions. In the current environment, a prudent approach to risk management—encompassing position sizing, stop losses, and scenario planning—can help investors navigate the potentially volatile period around the election and the subsequent transition.
In addition to political risk, macroeconomic dynamics, such as inflation trajectories, interest rate expectations, and global liquidity conditions, will continue to exert influence on Bitcoin’s price path. The possibility of rapid shifts in policy, regulatory stance, or market structure could alter the balance of demand and supply in ways that are difficult to predict in advance. As such, investors should remain attuned to the broader market context, including shifts in equities, commodities, and other risk assets, which can create a contagion effect or provide catalytic thrust for Bitcoin’s next leg higher.
The data landscape underpinning these insights emphasizes the importance of robust, real-time market information. While moving averages and trendlines offer important guidance, the practical reality is that Bitcoin’s price action can diverge from textbook expectations when macro headlines move markets more aggressively than technicals can anticipate. The best approach for market participants is to maintain a flexible and disciplined framework, combining technical awareness with an understanding of macro and political dynamics to inform decision-making.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s near-term prospects are shaped by a delicate mixture of political developments, macro risk appetite, and the reliability of technical supports. The analysis from Keith Alan and the broader market discourse converge on the idea that BTC may not reach a new all-time high before the 2024 election outcomes are fully counted, and that several major support lines have shown vulnerability in the face of volatility. The 50-day moving average, the 21-week moving average, and the critical $69,000 level have been under stress, while the 50-week moving average around $59,200 stands out as an important downside anchor.
In the longer term, the narrative shifts toward a more constructive view: once a new government is in office in mid-January, the market may begin to outpace the macro trend again, with a return path that could carry Bitcoin above its long-run trajectory by the second quarter of 2025. Expectations of a potential price discovery event, including the possibility of reaching $100,000 in early 2025, reflect a bullish sentiment that is contingent on a favorable policy environment and continued growth in institutional interest. Yet the upside is balanced by the caveat that breakdowns below key support levels could trigger rapid corrections, with the 50-week SMA acting as a critical risk checkpoint.
As always, readers should recognize that investment decisions require careful consideration of risk and personal financial objectives. Market participants should monitor political developments, macroeconomic signals, and evolving technical indicators to gauge Bitcoin’s next move. The coming months are likely to present a mix of volatility and opportunity, with BTC’s journey toward returning above the macro trend serving as a central thread in the evolving story of cryptocurrency markets.
