A strong December showing for Canada’s labor market surprised economists and reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada could begin easing policy soon, even as the economy still faces slack and uncertainty from global dynamics. The month delivered a robust gain in hiring, a modest decline in the jobless rate, and signals that the composition of employment and the pace of wage growth will shape the central bank’s rate path in the first half of the coming year. Below is a comprehensive, multi-faceted examination of what the December jobs numbers mean for policymakers, workers, and markets, and how major economic forecasters view the trajectory of interest rates in Canada.
December jobs data: headline figures and immediate implications
Canada’s labor market finished the year on a surprisingly firm note, recording a net gain of 91,000 jobs in December. This reading stood in stark contrast to economist expectations that had called for a much more modest expansion, with many forecasters projecting roughly 25,000 positions would be created for the month. The magnitude of the December increase was notably the largest in roughly two years, underscoring a resilience in hiring that had not been apparent in some earlier months of the year. In tandem with the strong payroll growth, the unemployment rate declined to 6.7 percent from 6.8 percent the prior month, signaling a modest but meaningful improvement in labor market slack.
The surprise-to-the-top moment in December payrolls immediately sharpened the focus on the Bank of Canada’s next policy move, with markets and policymakers anticipating how the central bank would interpret such evidence of labor market vigor alongside cooling wage dynamics and a still-elevated, though improving, unemployment rate. The December data thus provided a crucial input that would feed into the Bank’s deliberations around its upcoming rate decision in late January. Analysts and economists weighed the broader implications: would the stronger-than-expected hiring argue for a more cautious approach toward rate cuts, or would the resilience in the labor market still permit the central bank to move ahead with easing given inflation remained near target and wage growth appeared to be easing?
In the days following the December release, analysts sifted through the components of the job gains to determine whether the momentum was broad-based or overly skewed toward particular sectors or demographic groups. They scrutinized the level of hours worked, the distribution of job gains across full-time versus part-time roles, and any evidence of a shift in the participation rate or the population of workers entering or re-entering the labor market. A key question was whether the deterioration in wage pressures could accompany a stronger payroll print without rekindling inflationary risks, a balance that would influence the BoC’s willingness to tighten or loosen policy.
The mix of December’s payrolls also drew attention to the composition of employment gains. While the headline figure painted a picture of broad strength, subsequent analysis highlighted that a sizable share of the gains came from sectors that the government determines to be publicly funded or influenced. This raised questions among forecasters about the persistence of momentum in the private sector, which historically has a more pronounced influence on private investment decisions and domestic demand. As policymakers and economists delved into the data, the emphasis remained on the interplay between a government-driven wave of hiring and the private sector’s more cautious stance, and how this dynamic would inform the path of monetary policy in the near term.
The December report also included a notable uptick in total hours worked, which rose by 0.5 percent month over month. Some of this increase was attributed to the return of workers who had been temporarily removed from their posts due to labor actions. The stronger hours data, coupled with the payroll gains, suggested a more robust utilization of the labor force than mere headcount additions might indicate. Yet, even with those signals, average hourly wage growth appeared to have cooled, a factor that likely dampened concerns about a fresh wave of wage-push inflation and supported the case for monetary accommodation.
Beyond the headline numbers, several labor market indicators spoke to an economy that remained supported by a mix of supply-demand dynamics that were gradually rebalancing. The slow and steady improvement in unemployment, alongside a cooling of wage growth, reflected a labor market that was not overheating despite the robust job gains. These dynamics contributed to a sense that policy could transition toward a more accommodative stance without destabilizing inflation expectations, particularly in a context where global yields had been trending higher and domestic financial conditions could tighten on that backdrop.
In addition to the headline figures, analysts flagged the ongoing influence of population dynamics on the labor market. December’s data showed a population increase of about 67,000, a figure that suggested that immigration policy changes—likely to affect the cadence of newcomers entering the country—were making their way into labor market outcomes. Taken together, the December payroll surge, the falling unemployment rate, the moderation in wage growth, the rise in hours worked, and the nuanced population signal painted a complex but generally constructive portrait: a job market that was improving in tone, even as some segments and cohorts faced headwinds tied to global conditions and domestic policy shifts.
As policymakers prepared to assess the December data, the prevailing narrative among forecasters centered on the potential for the Bank of Canada to begin easing in January, followed by a cautious pause as the central bank evaluated the longer-term trajectory of inflation and the degree of slack in the economy. Yet voices across the spectrum remained mindful of the possibility that December’s strength might be partly transitory or specific to certain subgroups, which would underscore the need for a measured approach to policy normalization. In the end, the December numbers reinforced a central message: the Canadian labor market had regained some of its vigor, but it remained prudent to disentangle temporary boosts from persistent momentum when formulating the policy path.
Labour market composition: sectoral dynamics and the role of the public sector
A closer breakdown of December’s job gains reveals a sophisticated and somewhat mixed portrait of sectoral strength. While the overall headline indicated a broad-based improvement in employment, a deeper dive into the composition of the 91,000 additional jobs showed that a meaningful portion of the growth emanated from the public sector. Specifically, a substantial portion of the net gain was attributed to civil service hiring, a development that suggested government-led expansion or stabilization of employment in key public functions. This pattern prompted analysts to question how much of the December upturn was driven by government activity versus private sector momentum, which historically has carried greater weight in driving private investment, productivity growth, and long-term economic resilience.
In contrast to the public sector contribution, the private sector’s role in December’s hiring remained something of a mixed bag. While growth occurred across a number of occupations and industries, the most pronounced gains outside the public domain appeared in areas such as education, transportation, and warehousing. These sectors demonstrated a breadth of activity, reflecting shortages and demand in labor across essential service and logistics networks. The education segment’s contribution, in particular, underscored ongoing demand for teachers, administrators, and related staff as enrolment trends and policy priorities shaped workforce requirements. Transportation and warehousing gains highlighted the continued importance of logistics and distribution in sustaining domestic commerce, a pattern that aligned with e-commerce growth and the broader supply chain needs of a resilient economy.
However, the emphasis on public-sector hiring carried implications for how we interpret the strength of the labor market as a whole. A number of analysts cautioned that the magnitude of government-driven employment could temper the private-sector signal, potentially indicating less private-sector aggression or confidence among employers to expand payrolls without government support. This nuance mattered because a robust private-sector expansion is typically more predictive of private investment and productivity gains, which in turn influence long-run growth trajectories and inflation dynamics. The December data therefore prompted a careful assessment of how much of the payroll improvement could be sustained if government hiring slowed or if private-sector hiring regained its pace.
The population dimension added another layer of interpretation to December’s results. The 67,000 December population increase—the smallest in two years—was a telling signal that changes in federal immigration policy were starting to influence the flow of newcomers entering Canada’s labor force. The interplay between immigration, labor supply, and demand is a critical factor for economic growth, particularly in a country that has depended on immigration to replenish the labor force and offset aging demographics. The deceleration in population growth suggested that while immigration remains a vital source of labor supply, policy adjustments could attenuate the pace at which new entrants can fill open positions. This observation reinforced the view among analysts that even with strong payroll gains, there would still be headwinds from labor supply that could limit the pace of overall economic expansion.
To summarize the sectoral dynamics in December, the data presented a paradoxical but coherent picture: a sizable portion of job gains tied to the public sector, coupled with meaningful contributions from education, transportation, and warehousing in the private sphere, occurred alongside a rising hours worked metric and a cooling of wage growth. Taken together, these indicators suggested an economy that was expanding its payroll footprint in a way that balanced government demand with private-sector activity, while wage growth cooled enough to preserve space for monetary easing without triggering renewed inflation pressures. The implications for policymakers were nuanced: if public-sector hiring signaled structural support for employment in the near term, the overall unemployment rate and slack measures still pointed toward a scenario where the Bank of Canada might pursue a cautious, measured course of policy normalization rather than an abrupt tightening or another bout of aggressive rate hikes.
Hours worked and wages: signals of slack and price pressure
The December report’s hours worked data, rising by 0.5 percent from the prior month, provided an important gauge of underlying labor-market utilization beyond headcount. This metric, which captures the total number of hours that workers contribute to the economy, can illuminate whether job creation translates into meaningful increases in productive activity and household income. The rise in hours worked suggested that workers who were employed were putting in more effort or that more positions were becoming full-time and more intensively staffed, contributing to a higher output potential in the near term.
Analysts attributed a portion of the increase in hours to the temporary return of workers who had previously been displaced by industrial actions. This interpretation underscored the notion that some of December’s strength could be cyclical or tied to short-term labor-market disruptions, rather than a sustained, broad-based acceleration in labor demand. Nevertheless, the combination of payroll gains and higher hours worked remained a positive signal for domestic demand, indicating that employers were leveraging existing staff more intensively and creating opportunities for workers to increase their workloads and earnings.
Wage dynamics in December reflected a cooling trend that supported the case for monetary easing. The data showed that average hourly wage growth slowed compared with prior months, a development consistent with a cooling wage-price channel and a reduced risk of persistent inflation driven by a tight labor market. In a context where inflation had approached the Bank of Canada’s target, the softer wage trajectory alleviated some concerns about wage-driven inflationary pressures re-emerging and nudged policymakers toward a more accommodative policy stance.
The deeper implications for inflation were nuanced. While the unemployment rate fell and hours increased, the softer wage growth implied that wage-push inflation would likely not re-accelerate in the near term. This combination—lower wage growth with stronger payroll counts—could help the Bank of Canada align policy with a balanced objective: supporting domestic demand and employment while ensuring inflation remains anchored near the two percent target. The December data thus strengthened the case for a measured easing cycle, with the caveat that policymakers would continue to monitor wage leadership, productivity, and global price developments that could alter the inflation outlook.
In examining the labour market through the lens of slack, several economists highlighted an important counterpoint: while the unemployment rate had edged down, the level remained elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels, and the labor market still displayed residual slack. The presence of slack often manifests in a higher participation rate, but in this period participation did not surge as much as some had anticipated. Instead, the data suggested that a portion of the job gains created were absorbed by an expanding pool of workers who could re-enter or re-engage with the labor market, a dynamic that underscores the complexity of achieving sustainable, inflation-friendly normalization.
Taken together, the hours worked and wage trends complemented the payroll numbers by painting a coherent narrative: a labor market that was healing and adapting, with a cautious easing path compatible with the Bank of Canada’s long-run goals. The data encouraged policymakers to consider how to balance the need to stimulate growth and job creation against the imperative to prevent wage growth from re-accelerating into inflationary territory. This balancing act would shape the BoC’s January policy decision and provide the framework for evaluating subsequent moves in the coming months.
Population dynamics and immigration: demographic headwinds and labor supply
The December release drew attention to the population metric, which showed a rise of 67,000 in December—the smallest increase in two years. This slowdown in population growth fed into broader questions about immigration policy and its effect on Canada’s labor force. In recent years, Canada has relied heavily on immigration to replenish its workforce and support economic growth amid demographic aging. A slower influx of newcomers could influence the supply of workers for the private sector, potentially constraining the pace at which the economy could absorb job gains and raise wages.
Analysts noted that the December population signal aligns with ongoing policy adjustments and the evolving relationship between immigration and labor market outcomes. If new entrants face a delay or a longer onboarding process into the workforce, employers could experience temporary frictions in filling vacant roles, especially in sectors already experiencing skill shortages. This dynamic could also interact with wages and productivity, as a constrained supply of labor tends to push wages higher when demand outstrips supply. However, the December cooling in wage growth suggested that the immediate inflationary impact of slower population growth had not materialized in a direct manner, at least in the short term.
From a policy perspective, the demographic picture underscores the importance of strategic immigration planning and integration measures. If policymakers aim to sustain growth in a period of gradual wage moderation and ongoing slack, they might emphasize speedier entry for skilled workers, improved credential recognition, and targeted programs to align newcomers with labor-market needs. These steps could enhance the supply side of the economy without compromising inflation dynamics, enabling more effective balancing of growth, jobs, and price stability.
Moreover, the population trend has implications for long-term fiscal and monetary planning. As Canada contends with the twin pressures of aging demographics and a volatile global environment, ensuring an adequate and well-integrated labor supply becomes essential to sustaining living standards and social programs. The December data, by highlighting the relationship between population changes and labor-market outcomes, adds a layer of nuance to the central bank’s evaluation of slack and the appropriate stance of policy. The central bank’s policy framework would need to account for these structural elements in conjunction with cyclical developments in order to chart a course that fosters sustainable growth and inflation containment.
In sum, the December figures on population growth provided a meaningful context for interpreting the labor market’s performance. While the payroll gains suggested momentum and resilience, the deceleration in population growth signaled potential headwinds to the sustainment of private-sector momentum in the near term. The interplay between immigration trends and labor demand would thus be a focal point for policy discussions, with implications for the timing and magnitude of rate adjustments and for broader debates about Canada’s economic architecture in a changing global environment.
Market expectations and policy implications: what economists expect for the Bank of Canada
The December labor market data fed into a spectrum of expert assessments about the Bank of Canada’s policy trajectory, particularly regarding the timing and size of potential rate cuts. Several prominent forecasts emerged, each emphasizing different facets of the data and how they interact with inflation, wage dynamics, and global financial conditions.
Desjardins Group provided one of the more direct policy views in response to the December results. In a note, their macro strategy team suggested that the data supported a rate cut in January, followed by a pause. The logic rested on the combination of stronger labor-market activity and cooling wage growth, which collectively could permit the central bank to ease policy while maintaining prudence in the face of uncertain inflation pressures and external risks. The Desjardins view underscored the sense that the labor market’s strengthening did not automatically imply that the economy was overheating, particularly because wage pressures were not intensifying, and because broader global conditions remained a variable in the central bank’s calculus.
Capital Economics offered a slightly different emphasis, highlighting the improved hiring conditions but noting that the strength appeared to be driven largely by public-sector employment in December. Bradley Saunders, the North America economist for Capital Economics, pointed out that, while the December gain was substantial, it came with a sectoral tilt that could complicate the interpretation of the labor-market signal for the central bank. He suggested that the odds of a policy pause had increased, given the combination of a solid payroll figure and the absence of a corresponding, broad-based acceleration in private-sector hiring. The implication for policy was a recommendation to maintain a cautious approach: a pause could allow policymakers to observe how the economy unfolds in early 2025 before deciding whether further easing was warranted.
Oxford Economics offered a perspective that urged restraint in interpreting a single month of data, cautioning against overreacting to December’s strong print. Michael Davenport, an economist at Oxford Economics Canada, emphasized that there remains a considerable degree of slack in the labor market, which would push the unemployment rate higher again in early 2025. He noted signs of improvement—such as higher employment-to-population ratios and a deceleration in wage growth—but warned that these figures should not be overinterpreted as a definitive shift in the underlying dynamics. Davenport suggested that the data support a path toward rate cuts, but the scale and timing should be calibrated within the context of ongoing slack and inflation convergence toward the target. His view pointed toward a measured easing approach, potentially with a smaller initial move and a later pause to assess the inflation outlook.
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) analysts offered a nuanced perspective that balanced the near-term ease with the longer-run considerations for monetary policy. Nathan Janzen, RBC’s assistant chief economist, framed December’s data as highly volatile and cautioned that the unemployment rate’s movement remained somewhat elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. He argued that the unemployment rate could resume its upward trajectory given the three-month average tendency and the persistence of weak private-sector hiring. The RBC team did not dismiss the possibility of rate cuts, but they also emphasized that policy would likely remain dependent on the trajectory of inflation and wage growth. They suggested that the Bank of Canada would likely move the overnight rate toward more stimulative levels over the course of the year, specifically toward the lower end of the neutral range—an eventual adjustment that could place the rate below the mid-point of 2.75% to 3.25% in the longer term. The RBC stance highlighted the ongoing tension between improving labor-market indicators and the need to keep inflation in check as global conditions evolve.
National Bank of Canada offered a perspective that stressed the risks to growth and the implications of external pressures on Canada’s labor market. Economists Kyle Dahms and Matthieu Arseneau highlighted that the December labor market had ended the year on a strong footing, yet they stressed caution about interpreting the December gain as a durable signal of sustained momentum. They pointed out that nearly half of the net 91,000 job increase originated in the civil service, with private-sector hiring remaining muted in October and November as well. This pattern suggested that private employers were not driving the early-2025 momentum, and it warned that the overall growth path could be vulnerable to external shocks, including potential tariff changes and inventory imbalances. They argued that these risks could necessitate a policy response that allows the economy to grow at a rate compatible with inflation returning to target—likely requiring the BoC to whittle down policy rates toward the lower end of the neutral band by mid-year. Their view underscored the importance of considering the broader macroeconomic and geopolitical environment when calibrating the pace and magnitude of rate cuts.
Taken together, the consensus among these prominent forecasting houses reflected a shared view that December’s numbers aided the case for a measured easing path, albeit with varying degrees of caution. The central theme across forecasts was that a January cut remained a plausible first step for the Bank, provided inflation continued to move toward target and the labor market did not exhibit renewed signs of overheating. The recurring question, however, was about the pace and depth of subsequent reductions. Given the slack evident in the labor market and the cooling wage growth trajectory, many forecasters saw room for the BoC to reduce the policy rate gradually, but they also warned that a shift in external conditions—tariffs, global bond yields, or shifts in consumer expectations—could alter the calculus.
In addition to the policy emphasis, the analysts highlighted the broader macroeconomic context that would influence the BoC’s decision-making. The inflation trajectory, the pace of wage growth, and the domestic demand environment would need to align with the central bank’s two percent target over the medium term. The December data contributed to a narrative in which the BoC could pursue a modest easing-to-support growth while maintaining vigilance over inflation dynamics. The balance between supporting employment growth and preventing inflation from re-accelerating would be central to the policy dialogue in the coming months, and the December payroll report would be one of several pivotal inputs used to guide the central bank’s path.
Sectoral and macroeconomic risks: private-sector momentum, tariffs, and growth prospects
Beyond the headline payroll numbers, several economists drew attention to the risks and uncertainties that could shape Canada’s growth trajectory in 2025. One key issue was the apparent lag in private-sector hiring momentum relative to the strong public-sector gains observed in December. The underpinnings of private-sector strength have traditionally been closely linked to business investment, productivity improvements, and global demand conditions. If private hiring remains subdued, the economy could face slower productivity growth even as the public sector provides a stabilizing but less dynamic engine of growth. This delineation has direct implications for the Bank of Canada’s assessment of potential growth and the appropriate stance of monetary policy.
Tariffs and trade policy emerged as a notable external risk factor in the discussion around December’s numbers. Analysts highlighted the possibility that tariff threats from the United States or other trade partners could weigh on business confidence and investment decisions in Canada. In particular, the anti-inflationary effects of improved productivity could be offset if tariff-related uncertainties dampen capital expenditure and hiring in the private sector. The dynamic between trade policy, production costs, and domestic inflation would remain a critical variable for the Bank of Canada as it evaluated the optimal balance between growth support and price stability.
Another important consideration involved the potential impact of immigration policy on labor supply and economic growth. The December data suggested that slower population growth could influence the pace at which new entrants could join the labor force and fill job vacancies, particularly in sectors with conspicuous skill gaps. Analysts argued that a slower influx of workers could temper the long-run pace of private-sector hiring and wage growth, potentially constraining the economy’s growth potential. However, policymakers could respond by adjusting immigration policy, credential recognition, and integration programs to ensure a smoother transition of newcomers into productive roles. The interaction between immigration policy and labor market dynamics is thus a key strategic area for both policymakers and business leaders seeking to sustain robust growth while maintaining inflation within target.
From a macroeconomic standpoint, several forecasters argued that December’s strong payrolls should not be interpreted as a wholesale sign of a material, sustained acceleration in the Canadian economy. Oxford Economics emphasized the existence of legroom in the labor market, which would likely prevent a rapid tightening cycle and provided room for gradual easing if inflation remained on course to converge toward the target. In contrast, some others warned that if wage growth persisted at a higher level or if inflation proved more persistent due to external shocks, the BoC could reassert a more cautious approach or even forgo additional cuts in the near term. The central tension in this debate lay in reconciling a strengthening payroll backdrop with the need to sustain price stability in a global environment characterized by higher interest rates elsewhere and heightened risk sentiment.
On balance, the risks to growth identified by major Canadian economic think tanks and banks highlighted a broad set of potential headwinds that could shape the policy environment in 2025. These include external tariff pressures, the pace of private-sector hiring, immigration flows, and the longer-run dynamics of wage growth and productivity. The December data, while encouraging on the headline employment front, did not eliminate these risks and, in some cases, amplified them by underscoring structural and demographic dynamics that could influence the economy’s trajectory. As a result, the Bank of Canada was tasked with crafting a policy path that could accommodate a projected period of easing while remaining adaptable to shifting external conditions and domestic slack signals. The balance between stimulating growth and maintaining price stability would, therefore, remain the central orientation for policymakers, even in the face of a solid December payroll report.
Implications for households, businesses, and the broader economy
The December payroll numbers held meaningful implications for households across Canada. For workers, the stronger job market, coupled with slower wage growth, suggested a favorable environment for employment security and the potential for modest improvements in real incomes over time. Households could anticipate increased earnings through higher hours worked and likelihood of continued job retention, which would support consumer spending and household balance sheets. For businesses, the data offered a mixed signal: while public-sector hiring and sectoral gains indicated robust demand for labor in specific domains, private-sector hiring momentum remained uneven. Firms in education, transportation, and warehousing reported stronger activity, which could reflect growth in demand for services, e-commerce logistics, and infrastructure-related projects. Yet the softer wage growth and slack in private hiring implied that many businesses might approach expansion with caution, weighing cost pressures, productivity gains, and the risk that external shocks could impede momentum.
From a monetary policy perspective, the December release reinforced a cautious trajectory toward policy accommodation. The Bank of Canada’s decision in January—and the pace at which it could proceed with further cuts—would hinge on a delicate assessment of the inflation outlook, labor-market slack, and external risk factors. Given the cooling wage dynamics and still-resilient, though not overheated, payroll data, most forecasters expected a measured easing rather than a rapid, aggressive reduction in the policy rate. The potential for a pause after the initial cut reflected the central bank’s preference to observe how the economy absorbs the initial stimulus, how wage growth evolves, and how external conditions—such as global yields and tariff policy—affect domestic inflation. Households would benefit from a stable policy stance that supports consumption and investment while ensuring inflation remains anchored to the target.
For the financial system, the December data offered clarity on the Bank of Canada’s likely direction, potentially contributing to a more favorable environment for bonds and equities if rate cuts materialize and if markets anticipate a stable, inflation-targeted path. A predictable easing cycle could improve financing conditions for households and businesses, aiding housing markets, consumer credit, and corporate investment plans. Yet uncertainty about the exact timing and magnitude of subsequent rate adjustments would likely keep markets attentive to new data releases, evolving inflation projections, and international developments that could shift expectations about monetary policy. Overall, the December payrolls contributed to a nuanced and balanced outlook: stronger hiring did not derail inflation containment, and the path toward accommodation appeared plausible while remaining conditioned on future data and global economic developments.
Conclusion
The December labor-market report delivered a compelling signal that Canada’s economy began the new year with renewed hiring strength, a modest improvement in the unemployment rate, and a pattern of wage dynamics that suggested easing inflation pressures. The 91,000 net new jobs in December surpassed expectations by a wide margin and marked the strongest monthly gain in two years, underscoring resilience in the Canadian job market. The unemployment rate’s retreat to 6.7 percent, from 6.8 percent, indicated a gradual reduction in slack that would influence the Bank of Canada’s policy calculus in the near term. At the same time, the composition of the gains—substantial public-sector hiring alongside meaningful activity in education, transportation, and warehousing—highlighted a complex employment landscape in which government activity contributed to the payroll growth while private-sector momentum remained mixed.
The data also drew attention to several critical dynamics shaping the outlook for monetary policy. The softening pace of wage growth, combined with persistent slack in the labor market as indicated by the unemployment rate and the persistence of vacancies, supported arguments for an initial rate cut by the Bank in January. Analysts anticipated that the central bank would take a measured path toward easing, possibly followed by a pause to assess the impact of the initial stimulus and to monitor inflation’s trajectory in a shifting global environment. The December print therefore provided a basis for cautious optimism among forecasters regarding policy accommodation, while reinforcing the need to remain vigilant about external risks such as tariff policy, global yields, and immigration-driven labor-supply dynamics.
Looking ahead, economists expected the Bank of Canada to navigate a delicate balance: ease to bolster growth and employment while ensuring inflation remains near target, with policy adjustments calibrated as more evidence about wage dynamics and private-sector momentum emerged. The December payrolls underscored the economy’s capacity to generate meaningful employment, but they also highlighted structural and demographic considerations that could influence the pace and sustainability of growth. If the central bank could align policy with a gradually improving labor market, wage moderation, and a stable inflation outlook, Canada could maintain momentum into 2025 without compromising price stability. As always, the evolving global macroeconomic backdrop—tariffs, trade dynamics, yields, and consumer sentiment—will continue to shape the trajectory of Canada’s monetary policy, the employment landscape, and the broader economic narrative in the months ahead.