In a recent development, Matthew Sigel, the head of research at VanEck, has expressed his optimism about the likelihood of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year. Sigel’s comments come on the heels of a popular betting market’s forecast, which had already predicted a 77% chance of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025.
Polymarket’s Forecast: An Underpriced Bet?
On January 1st, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket estimated the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 to be around 77%. However, Sigel believes that this forecast is "underpriced." In a post on the X platform, he described the projected chances as being lower than they should be.
Industry Expectations: A Green Light for Crypto ETFs?
Sigel’s optimism mirrors industry-wide expectations of more crypto ETF listings in the US following President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. As you may recall, Trump expressed his desire to make America "the world’s crypto capital." This sentiment has sparked hopes that regulatory hurdles will be eased, paving the way for a surge in crypto-related investment products.
Prediction Markets: How They Work
For those who may not be familiar with prediction markets, they work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events. These contracts have prices that fluctuate dynamically based on expected outcomes. In this case, Polymarket’s projected ETF listing odds increased to approximately 84% as of January 2nd, according to its website.
A Favorable Listing Prospectus
In June, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares submitted a request to US regulators to list spot Solana ETFs. However, in August, the Securities and Exchange Commission reportedly challenged their plans, citing concerns that SOL qualified as a security rather than a commodity.
The Grantor Trust Structure: A Key to Success?
Issuers have noted that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs, which are the only two types of cryptocurrency ETFs permitted to trade on US exchanges, use an atypical "grantor trust" structure. This structure is typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity. Success may hinge on whether proposed Solana ETFs can conform to a similar structure.
A Green Light from Trump’s Presidential Win
Industry analysts see Trump’s presidential win as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US. In November, shortly after Trump’s victory in the US presidential race, Sigel reportedly said that the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are now "overwhelmingly high."
Bullish Bettors: Polymarket’s Popularity Soars
Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, clocking nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone, according to data from Dune Analytics. During the US elections in November, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
A Banner Year for Cryptocurrency Markets?
Bettors are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets. With BTC and ETH expected to hit all-time highs and several new types of crypto ETFs listing in the US, it’s no wonder why many industry insiders are optimistic about the future.
How Crypto Laws Are Changing Across the World in 2025
With regulatory developments playing a significant role in shaping the cryptocurrency landscape, we take a closer look at how crypto laws are changing across the world in 2025.
